what the chinese market crash is trying to tell you
by:MX machinery 2019-08-28
NEW YORK (TheStreet)-- The recent crash and instability in China\'s stock market continues. Even special government intervention ( For example, prevent large holders from selling for 6 months) No bleeding yet. This is not a real capitalist market. Only under the state capitalist system can such restrictions on major shareholders occur). Meanwhile, more people in China use the stock market as a form of gambling. Therefore, it is risky to assume that there will be a bottom soon. In the foreseeable future, you may be wise to avoid the whole market. The crisis has made many people aware of the serious problems of China\'s credit bubble and the possibility that China\'s economic growth will continue to slow down. It may also highlight deeper trends in the global economy. A long time ago, most people in the West were engaged in agriculture. At least in the United States, the situation began to end. S. More than 100 years ago. Cost of agriculture and food ( Proportion of total output; See below) The trend of obvious decline began. Today, there is a small percentage of the population working in agriculture in the United States. In the U. S. One can see that huge wheat fields are managed by Great machines, usually without drivers at all. The industry eventually followed a similar trend. The increasing mechanization led to cheaper production in the 19 th and 20 th centuries, and eventually industrial output became a small part of the United States. S. Especially in the last 30 or 40 years. Again, see the chart below. Source: 1840-1900: Robert E. Galman and Thomas J. Weiss. \"Service industry in the 19 th century. \"In terms of production and productivity in the service sector. Victor R. Fuchs, 287-352. New York: Columbia University Press (for NBER), 1969. 1900-1940: John W. Ken Rick, productivity trends in the United States. Princeton University Pressfor NBER), 1961. 1950- 2010: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts. Then, a large amount of production capacity shifts eastward (e. g. , to China) Look for cheaper labor. The share of U. S. According to data mining, global manufacturing grew from about 29% in 1970 to about 10% in 2010, and China\'s share rose from 5% in the same period to nearly 20% ( Part of CQ Roll Call) April 23, 2012. As a result, production costs, like agriculture, are on a downward trend. However, it is crucial that China\'s recent market collapse may be a symptom of the beginning of the end of China\'s productivity growth phase. Maybe China just saw the credit boom. But it is also possible that the country\'s current economic problems are part of a broader trend. Lower production costs. In other words, we have entered the era of electronic information and knowledge economy in a more comprehensive way. - Of course, senior organizations in economic cooperation Business development (OECD)economies. In this era, the cost of food and productivity is moving towards such a low level that power and wealth are primarily given to information, electronic data, or knowledge. This may be a hidden story of the collapse of the Chinese market ( China is an industrial power. based economy). This is an exciting prospect for some people. e. g. Paul Mason in his book Post-capitalism. Mason and others believe that if food and goods become closer to freedom and power is given information, then we are destined to have a new future of equality. After all, today\'s knowledge is a \"common interest\" and the Internet is accessible to all of us. Some people think that we are entering a new prospective. At least in developed countries, the utopian stage of human economic prosperity and openness. However, Mason comes from one and a halfMarxist, quasi- There is reason why the utopian background is not so optimistic. While production costs now seem to be getting lower and lower, information may not be a universally available benefit that we want to think about. There is real research showing that most of the information most people get on the Internet is not very useful in the end. A lot of information is inaccurate and full of inconsistency or bias. In fact, the Center for Economic Policy Research believes that the Internet may have exacerbated radical or irrational political fashion in the United States. S. Because it allows viewers to be selective about the information they comment on. Robert Shiller, a professor of economics at Yale University, also believes that the internet has brought more volatility to our stock market because it has generated significant misinformation and prejudice, it makes many participants in the market irrational at all. \"Smart Money \"(he argues) Often squeezed out of the market, resulting in sustained bubbles (e. g. Current foam in social media socks). If so many participants in the market are not informed rationally, how can you have a rational market with \"effective market theory? Truly valuable information such as patents, formulas, key machines, and drug design still seems to be largely the property of big companies such as Apple (AAPL) And Microsoft (MSFT) Big pharmaceutical companies. In this new information age, a new form of capitalism may emerge based on a monopoly on information or sources of knowledge. It is also possible that a new form of metrology will come. For a person with an idea, he has to eat, so we know there is some rough connection between the spread of ideas and the quality/energy. Thought or message = mass/energy in a loose sense. In human cases, the relationship is somewhat vague. However, in the case of computer information, it can be very clear to store and process this relationship. The electrons generated by the carbon brush are being transformed into information. Therefore, we can accurately measure how much energy is needed at any time a given amount of information is processed in a particular system. In fact, these types of associations may be the origin of a whole new form of new electronic-Economic Mathematics Based on knowledge economy. The collapse of the Chinese market may tell us something else. - That is to say, the demand for more developing \"tiger\" economies may be limited. China\'s productive revolution may be enough to make the country number one in the world. But as production costs continue to decline, more and more Chinese Economic \"miracle\" is needed \". A continent like Africa where a productive revolution has not yet begun, unfortunately, may be too late for the whole game. That is to say, at least in the West, we may not need (Need) Africa\'s productivity has declined further due to low-output excess Cost output has been achieved. At the same time, so far, the huge GDP growth brought about by the IT revolution has not really felt. Thanks to the comments of economist Robert Solow 1987, this undergrowth of GDP from the technological revolution has even been labeled as Solow\'s computer paradox, \"You can see computers anywhere except productivity statistics Recently, The Economist argued that \"the digital revolution has yet to deliver on the promise of increasing productivity and improving employment. However, the technological revolution is still in its infancy. If agricultural and industrial production is increasingly marginalized, future global growth may eventually return to the OECD countries, as the benefits of the knowledge economy eventually begin to show economic growth data in an important way. This remains to be seen, however. This may be a pretty scary future. The cost of producing food and goods is often reduced, but this does not necessarily lead to the ultimate Nirvana. For example, what do most people in the West do for their jobs? ( We have seen this problem in the OECD countries. ) It is believed that the amount of service that can be provided may be unlimited. A woman from the wealthy OECD can get her nails fixed once a month, but every day, men can massage every other day instead of once in a while, etc. There will inevitably be a huge wealth difference between people who control \"information\" and those who provide these services in an increasing number of \"quasi\" jobs. At the same time, less developed countries that missed the productivity boom could be completely excluded from the economic growth equation. Migration Problems in rich OECD countries will continue. All of this could lead to major new issues of distribution justice. New ideological problems may arise. We should remember that the division of the left and right is actually only a product of the Industrial Revolution and the French Revolution ( Initially simply point out which side of the French parliament you are sitting on). However, the concept of industrial capitalism or socialism is not necessarily an eternal concept. - They are intrinsically linked to the nature of industrial production, not after all the early concepts (e. g. Agricultural Economy in medieval or ancient times). Again, in the knowledge economy, we may find that the concepts of industrial capitalism/socialism have simply passed through their sales --by dates. In the future, the conflict of control over information may lead to a new political ideology and ideological form. So there it is. Maybe it\'s bad luck- We are confident in the future of the economy. In any case, it\'s just speculation that the Internet is likely to be more of a liberator of information than suggested above. In terms of productivity, there may also be new developments that we cannot foresee at present. Stuff happens (e. g. Like the fracking revolution. Human beings persevere and find new solutions to new problems. Things tend to happen in some way (good and bad) No one ever imagined Still, some things seem quite clear. The collapse of China is likely to herald the future, indicating the rise of the information age and the end of the industrial capitalist era. Jeremy Josse, author of dinosaur derivatives and other transactions, is another option for financial philosophy and theory ( Published by Wiley & Co).