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special report - weird weather leaves amazon thirsty
by：MX machinery
2019-08-28
Capilanga, Brazil (Reuters)-
The river passed through its bleaching --
On the white bank of the river, camans bathed in the early morning sun, and the stranded boathouse swayed.
A stranded barge carrying eight trucks and a crane was nearby.
Its owner was caught by the speed of the river\'s descent long ago.
When the world\'s largest rainforest is thirsty, this is how it looks.
If climate scientists are right, dry Amazon scenes like this will become more common in the coming decades, which could threaten the survival of forests and the acceleration of global warming.
The environmental and economic consequences could be enormous.
For Brazil, for South America, for the Earth.
Tense months
The long drought in November drained the mighty Black River.
A tributary of Amazon
This is the lowest level since records began in 1902, drying up the water network that is the lifeblood of Brazil\'s giant Amazon state.
With millions of dead fish polluting the river, more than 60,000 people lack food and many lack clean drinking water.
This is a \"once in a century\" weather event.
Oddly enough, just five years ago, meteorologists described another severe drought in Amazon in the same way.
Last year, massive flooding in the region killed dozens of people and left tens of thousands homeless, in line with the more extreme weather patterns predicted by the climate model this century.
Years like this have increased the credibility of forecasts that by the middle of this century, forests will suffer \"huge losses\"
The drought, which lasted for many years, caused a large number of trees to die.
This, in turn, will reduce the rainfall in the remaining forests and form a vicious circle that will turn most of Amazon into savannah-
Like the state of 2100
Biologists and climatologists say there may be a \"tipping point\" after which the death of the forest becomes itself.
Affected by rising temperatures, reduced rainfall and destructive fires.
The latest drought is not surprising for 19-year-old skinny Erli Perreirayear-
The old man is fishing under the shadow of the barge, which is located on a tributary of the solimos River, about 60 miles (100 km)
From the Amazon central city of maaus.
He said that over the years, the Sun has become hotter and hotter, making it impossible to work in the field after the middle of the year.
In the morning, during the annual \"burning season\", when the farmer used the dry conditions to clean the forest with fire, his fish was caught.
\"Many things in the Bible are about to pass,\" Pereira said . \" Pereira is wearing a soaked gun, and the roses are not --
A fish with a gasping in one hand.
\"A lot of things are changing, just like the sun is getting hotter and hotter.
Their predictions may not be so biblical, but climate scientists and eco-scientists are also worried.
This month, when leaders gathered in Cancun, Mexico to hold a new round of global climate talks, the recent extreme weather has caused climate scientists around the world to rush to study them as an anomaly, it also represents a more sinister sign of climate change.
Rosie Fisher, a project scientist at the National Atmospheric Research Center (NCAR)
In Colorado, people are always skeptical about Amazon\'s doomsday scenario.
Many of the complex models that are trying to map the climate of the future, including the NCAR\'s own model, indicate that Amazon\'s rainfall may not change much in this century.
But when she saw maps showing negligible rainfall in Amazon this year, she was shocked, less than half the average annual rainfall.
The drought in 2005 was very severe, but this year a map of water shortages in the region painted a more dry picture.
\"The map I see now looks like an extreme part of my scene and is happening now.
\"I was really shocked by that,\" Fisher said . \" He specializes in the interaction between climate and forests.
\"In a way, it reminds me of the fact that they found the Greenland ice sheet melting much faster than the climate model predicted.
Amazon\'s trees, which account for more than half of the world\'s remaining rain forests, are the world\'s most important air conditioners that absorb about 2 billion tons of atmospheric carbon each year, helping to keep the world cool.
When they die or wither, as they do during the 2005 drought, they become part of the world --
Warming the problem by releasing carbon.
Last year, an international study found that 2005 of the drought released more greenhouse gases than in Europe and Japan, indicating how forests quickly shifted from carbon sinks to sources.
If the study is correct, this year\'s drought could release at least as much carbon.
Oliver Phillips, an ecologist at the University of Leeds, said: \"We don\'t need a major disaster in Amazon to change the Earth system. we just need the sink to disappear . \"
The author of the study.
The Amazon —
Across nine countries, considered the world\'s largest pot of biodiversity
By the end of this century, temperatures are expected to be hotter than before the last ice age.
According to the difference in greenhouse gas emissions, meteorologists say it will rise by 3 to 5 degrees Celsius (5. 4-
9 degrees Fahrenheit)is likely.
For most people in the region who still live on land and water, this may mean that the struggle for survival is getting harder and harder.
Brazil\'s agricultural boom has become one of the bread baskets in the world, and will also face the risk of heavy rain breaking down in the regionmaking machine.
Consequences of the forest-
The Incredible World of flora and fauna and the fight against global warming can also be serious. A large-
Amazon\'s \"ebb tide\" is one of the few potential events that could dramatically exacerbate climate change, as ice fields in Greenland and Antarctica melt and Gulf currents break.
In some ways, this is the most worrying because of the speed at which it may occur and the amount of carbon it may emit to the atmosphere as the trees die
Estimated manpower in about 15 years
Causing emissions.
\"You can release a lot of carbon in a few decades, and the ice sheet will take hundreds of years,\" Peter Cox said . \" Professor of Climate System Dynamics, University of Exeter, UK.
\"If this happens, Amazon will be more disastrous because there is this feedback between drying, fire and carbon dioxide release, which is very fast.
About 870 miles (1,400 km)
Southeast of maaus, eastern Mato Grosso, Brazil, may be an early indicator of the worst.
Here, the country\'s ever-expanding frontier of cattle and soybean cultivation conflicts with forests, often with fierce consequences.
This year\'s drought has turned the area around the protected Xinggu indigenous Indian park into a fire box.
A fire usually caused by a small fire.
Time farmers cleared their land and wreaked havoc on farmland and forests.
Number of fires in Mato Grosso-
Means a dense forest.
So far this year, from 36,700 last year to more than 8,135, razed to the ground, killing livestock and often jumping into the remaining pristine forests in the area.
NASA satellite images of the period showed a large cloud of smoke hanging over the center of South America.
It was a exhausting few months for EDiMA dos Santos ableau.
As a new six
Firefighters trained by the United StatesS.
Forest Services\'s elite \"cigarette-wearing\" firefighter, who is responsible for putting out fires throughout the sprawling area.
\"We hardly get home until we get a call about another fire,\" soft-spoken 36-year-old.
He said one of the 30 or so fires they handled this year lasted nine days.
Unlike in the past, fires that spread to the forest continue to burn at night
Obvious signs of drying conditions.
\"I think what we see in Mato Grosso is a process of retreat.
It\'s a process that takes 15 or 20 years to reach a new balance, \"said Daniel nistard, an American economist. S.
Ecologist with 26 years of experience in Amazon.
Night fires continue to burn and even intensify, and they are usually put out by drops of dew and temperature in the Amazon area, a particularly worrying sight.
\"You might fall into a kind of big --
Fire conditions-
We saw this in California, \"said Nepstad, a senior scientist at the Amazon Environmental Research Institute in Brazil (IPAM).
John Carter is a Texan, he worked as a ranch owner in the area for 15 years and set up a fire brigade, he didn\'t bleed --
Environmental protection heart
\"I really don\'t care about biodiversity --
It\'s just a consequence, \"44-year-
Old, a veteran of the first Gulf War, he has experienced quite a bit of violent demonstrations in Amazon, which often does not have laws.
But he said that since his arrival, the warming of the region has been alarming and is increasingly threatening agricultural production and forests.
If more forest is not kept intact, \"we may shoot ourselves in a short period of time --
\"The term of office will grow over the next 20 years,\" he said . \".
\"I have no doubt that if we do not work together in the next five years, it may be too late for wild fires due to the effects of logging and further deforestation. By 2030-
2040, we just have to have a big brush pile.
\"Indian indigenous farmers who used to plant fields in August are now planting fields in October or November because it rains later.
In the fire burning here a few weeks ago, the fields exposed by the columns of the blackened fence, the great temple, chief parizhan, leaned against his hoe and said with hope, before \"white\" contacted his Xavante, there was a young man in the trees and fruitWarrior)tribe.
Now, about 1,000 people in his community live in a protected area east of Xinggu Park, where they are almost completely cut down by forests and widely invaded by land. grabbers.
58-said: \"If I were born today, I would be born weak because there is no nature, there is no forest or good air for us to breatheyear-old.
\"The climate has deteriorated and it will get hotter.
If this cassava I plant doesn\'t rain, we will lose weight because of these changes.
\"Farmers, lumberers and land speculators have destroyed nearly five of Amazon\'s pristine forests, but the rate of destruction has dropped sharply over the past few years.
(About 2,700 square miles)7,000 square kilometers)
Lost in 2008.
In 09, which fell more than 70% in five years, the government said the dramatic change was mainly due to better monitoring and law enforcement.
But in a region like Western Europe where there are only six helicopters, it\'s just part of the story.
While deforestation has fallen, global commodity prices have plunged and global economic recession suggests that this may be a temporary calm.
\"I think we are in the eyes of a hurricane,\" Carter said . \"
Land Alliance)
The organization is working with farmers to improve their environment and fires
Standard of prevention.
\"When people don\'t have cash and are leveraged to the limit, they don\'t spend money to cut down forests.
\"Even if the deforestation directly caused by human intervention is reduced to zero, the balance of evidence suggests that forests are very fragile in a warming world.
A World Bank report this year draws on 24 global climate models and Japan\'s super Earth Simulator
Computers predict that in the relatively unspoiled northwest of the century, Amazon is more humid and the drought in the South is intensifying.
But once the effects of elevated temperatures, deforestation, and greater fire risk on vegetation are taken into account, it concludes that Amazon has a \"high probability\" of particularly serious and close
Term risk in the east.
Carlos Nobre, one of the leading climate scientists at the National Space Institute in Brazil)INPE)
The decline in global deforestation is likely to put the world in a false sense of security, he said.
Even if global deforestation falls to zero, the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions means \"huge changes\" in Amazon\'s forests, he said \".
\"Everyone will go home and say \'OK, the forest is safe and biodiversity will be protected.
\"No, that\'s not the case,\" he said.
\"This is a very serious situation.
As in 2005, climate scientists say this year\'s drought could be due to a fall in air over Amazon caused by North Atlantic warming, which has hindered the formation of rain clouds.
Some models have shown this trend to intensify as the Earth warms.
So far, the most terrible interpretation of Amazon\'s future comes from the Hudson center of the British Meteorological Bureau, whose model shows a catastrophic rise in temperatures of 8 degrees Celsius in the region (14. 4 Fahrenheit)
By the end of this century or more.
In this case, the forest is reduced to a small part of the current one.
Other studies have shown that, as in parts of Asia, the transition to longer seasonal forests during the dry season is more likely to yield results than the Bush of this century.
But Yadvinder Malhi, professor of ecosystem science at the University of Oxford, said that it could still increase Amazon\'s vulnerability in fires and have a serious impact on biodiversity.
\"Many tropical species may be reduced.
Some insects and lizards may be difficult to deal with 4-5 degrees (Celsius),” he said.
Depending on the complex interactions between temperature, atmosphere, rainfall and deforestation, it is an inaccurate science to call for when forests can pass through irreversible tipping points.
These changes are not bad news.
For example, more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can promote tree growth and drought resistance by stimulating the photosynthesis process of some species.
No one knows exactly how thousands of different tree species in Amazon will adapt to warmer temperatures and more drought.
Many of them are hardy varieties due to the deep-rooted probe 50 feet (15 meters)
Or more to find moisture to keep them alive during the drought.
The study found that in the same drought, trees in the Borneo rainforest are more likely to die than trees in the Amazon rainforest.
Brazil\'s Nobre says even in areas like Mato Grosso, forests have not reached a tipping point --
At least not in terms of climate change.
\"We have not observed any long time.
\"The long-term change in rainfall,\" he said . \".
\"In terms of climate, it\'s far from the tipping point.
\"INPE\'s study found that Amazon\'s deforestation rate must reach 40%, twice the current level, in order to trigger a widespread recession.
But in areas such as Mato Grosso, where the remaining forests are separated and affected by dry wind and fire, the process is significantly accelerated.
\"In those degraded areas, if they continue to use fire, you may reach a point where you don\'t return,\" Nobre said . \".
In a forest the size of a city block in Mato Grosso, Paul Brando\'s boots creaked in the burnt trunk, passing through fragile leaves and branches.
Every three years, the land is burned as part of an experiment to compare its resilience to an untouched forest next to it.
The result was a sad and injured landscape.
Brando, an ecologist at Amazon\'s Environmental Research Institute, calls it a \"poor\" ecosystem.
As many as half of the species have disappeared, and the carbon stored in the vegetation has fallen third in more than three years.
The grass invaded the sun.
The exposed forest floor provides fire for future fires at a temperature of 5 degrees Celsius (9 Fahrenheit)
Above the patch that still has a cool green canopy.
\"These fires can be very intense if the wet forest gets dry because you have a lot of fuel.
\"If you start to have a bit of a fire source in a dry year, you may get to this soon,\" Brando said . \".
Nearly 30% from Amazon (10 km)
A potential source of fire, such as a farm or a road.
While a scientific jury may not be conclusive on how more extreme weather will affect the forest, residents in the area are already suffering from the consequences.
For the second time in five years, the drought in the Amazon state, as large as Alaska, has brought surreal car driving places where people swim a few weeks ago.
Some food-hungry residents have salvaged endangered manatees from the shallow waters.
Officials in a small city on the solimos River near maaus say extreme conditions in recent years have led to an influx of environmental migrants.
\"This is an extreme consistency,\" said Deputy Mayor Joao Messias . \".
\"Our city is full.
After these great floods and droughts, it has filled up a lot.
\"In the smaller town of kapilanga, the ship transport here was mostly cut off due to the drought, and residents complained that the price of many foods doubled, their farmland has not recovered from the damage caused by the flood.
From the one next to his cabin-
On the lake, Manuel Ferreira de Matos squinted at the distant water through a worn-out pair of glasses, glittering A Mirage more than a kilometer away.
\"When I got home from the field, I was dying of thirst,\" said the 57-year-old. year-
Seven-year-old father
\"No problem until I can walk all day, but now I can\'t stand it --
It\'s like the sun is getting closer and closer.
The river passed through its bleaching --
On the white bank of the river, camans bathed in the early morning sun, and the stranded boathouse swayed.
A stranded barge carrying eight trucks and a crane was nearby.
Its owner was caught by the speed of the river\'s descent long ago.
When the world\'s largest rainforest is thirsty, this is how it looks.
If climate scientists are right, dry Amazon scenes like this will become more common in the coming decades, which could threaten the survival of forests and the acceleration of global warming.
The environmental and economic consequences could be enormous.
For Brazil, for South America, for the Earth.
Tense months
The long drought in November drained the mighty Black River.
A tributary of Amazon
This is the lowest level since records began in 1902, drying up the water network that is the lifeblood of Brazil\'s giant Amazon state.
With millions of dead fish polluting the river, more than 60,000 people lack food and many lack clean drinking water.
This is a \"once in a century\" weather event.
Oddly enough, just five years ago, meteorologists described another severe drought in Amazon in the same way.
Last year, massive flooding in the region killed dozens of people and left tens of thousands homeless, in line with the more extreme weather patterns predicted by the climate model this century.
Years like this have increased the credibility of forecasts that by the middle of this century, forests will suffer \"huge losses\"
The drought, which lasted for many years, caused a large number of trees to die.
This, in turn, will reduce the rainfall in the remaining forests and form a vicious circle that will turn most of Amazon into savannah-
Like the state of 2100
Biologists and climatologists say there may be a \"tipping point\" after which the death of the forest becomes itself.
Affected by rising temperatures, reduced rainfall and destructive fires.
The latest drought is not surprising for 19-year-old skinny Erli Perreirayear-
The old man is fishing under the shadow of the barge, which is located on a tributary of the solimos River, about 60 miles (100 km)
From the Amazon central city of maaus.
He said that over the years, the Sun has become hotter and hotter, making it impossible to work in the field after the middle of the year.
In the morning, during the annual \"burning season\", when the farmer used the dry conditions to clean the forest with fire, his fish was caught.
\"Many things in the Bible are about to pass,\" Pereira said . \" Pereira is wearing a soaked gun, and the roses are not --
A fish with a gasping in one hand.
\"A lot of things are changing, just like the sun is getting hotter and hotter.
Their predictions may not be so biblical, but climate scientists and eco-scientists are also worried.
This month, when leaders gathered in Cancun, Mexico to hold a new round of global climate talks, the recent extreme weather has caused climate scientists around the world to rush to study them as an anomaly, it also represents a more sinister sign of climate change.
Rosie Fisher, a project scientist at the National Atmospheric Research Center (NCAR)
In Colorado, people are always skeptical about Amazon\'s doomsday scenario.
Many of the complex models that are trying to map the climate of the future, including the NCAR\'s own model, indicate that Amazon\'s rainfall may not change much in this century.
But when she saw maps showing negligible rainfall in Amazon this year, she was shocked, less than half the average annual rainfall.
The drought in 2005 was very severe, but this year a map of water shortages in the region painted a more dry picture.
\"The map I see now looks like an extreme part of my scene and is happening now.
\"I was really shocked by that,\" Fisher said . \" He specializes in the interaction between climate and forests.
\"In a way, it reminds me of the fact that they found the Greenland ice sheet melting much faster than the climate model predicted.
Amazon\'s trees, which account for more than half of the world\'s remaining rain forests, are the world\'s most important air conditioners that absorb about 2 billion tons of atmospheric carbon each year, helping to keep the world cool.
When they die or wither, as they do during the 2005 drought, they become part of the world --
Warming the problem by releasing carbon.
Last year, an international study found that 2005 of the drought released more greenhouse gases than in Europe and Japan, indicating how forests quickly shifted from carbon sinks to sources.
If the study is correct, this year\'s drought could release at least as much carbon.
Oliver Phillips, an ecologist at the University of Leeds, said: \"We don\'t need a major disaster in Amazon to change the Earth system. we just need the sink to disappear . \"
The author of the study.
The Amazon —
Across nine countries, considered the world\'s largest pot of biodiversity
By the end of this century, temperatures are expected to be hotter than before the last ice age.
According to the difference in greenhouse gas emissions, meteorologists say it will rise by 3 to 5 degrees Celsius (5. 4-
9 degrees Fahrenheit)is likely.
For most people in the region who still live on land and water, this may mean that the struggle for survival is getting harder and harder.
Brazil\'s agricultural boom has become one of the bread baskets in the world, and will also face the risk of heavy rain breaking down in the regionmaking machine.
Consequences of the forest-
The Incredible World of flora and fauna and the fight against global warming can also be serious. A large-
Amazon\'s \"ebb tide\" is one of the few potential events that could dramatically exacerbate climate change, as ice fields in Greenland and Antarctica melt and Gulf currents break.
In some ways, this is the most worrying because of the speed at which it may occur and the amount of carbon it may emit to the atmosphere as the trees die
Estimated manpower in about 15 years
Causing emissions.
\"You can release a lot of carbon in a few decades, and the ice sheet will take hundreds of years,\" Peter Cox said . \" Professor of Climate System Dynamics, University of Exeter, UK.
\"If this happens, Amazon will be more disastrous because there is this feedback between drying, fire and carbon dioxide release, which is very fast.
About 870 miles (1,400 km)
Southeast of maaus, eastern Mato Grosso, Brazil, may be an early indicator of the worst.
Here, the country\'s ever-expanding frontier of cattle and soybean cultivation conflicts with forests, often with fierce consequences.
This year\'s drought has turned the area around the protected Xinggu indigenous Indian park into a fire box.
A fire usually caused by a small fire.
Time farmers cleared their land and wreaked havoc on farmland and forests.
Number of fires in Mato Grosso-
Means a dense forest.
So far this year, from 36,700 last year to more than 8,135, razed to the ground, killing livestock and often jumping into the remaining pristine forests in the area.
NASA satellite images of the period showed a large cloud of smoke hanging over the center of South America.
It was a exhausting few months for EDiMA dos Santos ableau.
As a new six
Firefighters trained by the United StatesS.
Forest Services\'s elite \"cigarette-wearing\" firefighter, who is responsible for putting out fires throughout the sprawling area.
\"We hardly get home until we get a call about another fire,\" soft-spoken 36-year-old.
He said one of the 30 or so fires they handled this year lasted nine days.
Unlike in the past, fires that spread to the forest continue to burn at night
Obvious signs of drying conditions.
\"I think what we see in Mato Grosso is a process of retreat.
It\'s a process that takes 15 or 20 years to reach a new balance, \"said Daniel nistard, an American economist. S.
Ecologist with 26 years of experience in Amazon.
Night fires continue to burn and even intensify, and they are usually put out by drops of dew and temperature in the Amazon area, a particularly worrying sight.
\"You might fall into a kind of big --
Fire conditions-
We saw this in California, \"said Nepstad, a senior scientist at the Amazon Environmental Research Institute in Brazil (IPAM).
John Carter is a Texan, he worked as a ranch owner in the area for 15 years and set up a fire brigade, he didn\'t bleed --
Environmental protection heart
\"I really don\'t care about biodiversity --
It\'s just a consequence, \"44-year-
Old, a veteran of the first Gulf War, he has experienced quite a bit of violent demonstrations in Amazon, which often does not have laws.
But he said that since his arrival, the warming of the region has been alarming and is increasingly threatening agricultural production and forests.
If more forest is not kept intact, \"we may shoot ourselves in a short period of time --
\"The term of office will grow over the next 20 years,\" he said . \".
\"I have no doubt that if we do not work together in the next five years, it may be too late for wild fires due to the effects of logging and further deforestation. By 2030-
2040, we just have to have a big brush pile.
\"Indian indigenous farmers who used to plant fields in August are now planting fields in October or November because it rains later.
In the fire burning here a few weeks ago, the fields exposed by the columns of the blackened fence, the great temple, chief parizhan, leaned against his hoe and said with hope, before \"white\" contacted his Xavante, there was a young man in the trees and fruitWarrior)tribe.
Now, about 1,000 people in his community live in a protected area east of Xinggu Park, where they are almost completely cut down by forests and widely invaded by land. grabbers.
58-said: \"If I were born today, I would be born weak because there is no nature, there is no forest or good air for us to breatheyear-old.
\"The climate has deteriorated and it will get hotter.
If this cassava I plant doesn\'t rain, we will lose weight because of these changes.
\"Farmers, lumberers and land speculators have destroyed nearly five of Amazon\'s pristine forests, but the rate of destruction has dropped sharply over the past few years.
(About 2,700 square miles)7,000 square kilometers)
Lost in 2008.
In 09, which fell more than 70% in five years, the government said the dramatic change was mainly due to better monitoring and law enforcement.
But in a region like Western Europe where there are only six helicopters, it\'s just part of the story.
While deforestation has fallen, global commodity prices have plunged and global economic recession suggests that this may be a temporary calm.
\"I think we are in the eyes of a hurricane,\" Carter said . \"
Land Alliance)
The organization is working with farmers to improve their environment and fires
Standard of prevention.
\"When people don\'t have cash and are leveraged to the limit, they don\'t spend money to cut down forests.
\"Even if the deforestation directly caused by human intervention is reduced to zero, the balance of evidence suggests that forests are very fragile in a warming world.
A World Bank report this year draws on 24 global climate models and Japan\'s super Earth Simulator
Computers predict that in the relatively unspoiled northwest of the century, Amazon is more humid and the drought in the South is intensifying.
But once the effects of elevated temperatures, deforestation, and greater fire risk on vegetation are taken into account, it concludes that Amazon has a \"high probability\" of particularly serious and close
Term risk in the east.
Carlos Nobre, one of the leading climate scientists at the National Space Institute in Brazil)INPE)
The decline in global deforestation is likely to put the world in a false sense of security, he said.
Even if global deforestation falls to zero, the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions means \"huge changes\" in Amazon\'s forests, he said \".
\"Everyone will go home and say \'OK, the forest is safe and biodiversity will be protected.
\"No, that\'s not the case,\" he said.
\"This is a very serious situation.
As in 2005, climate scientists say this year\'s drought could be due to a fall in air over Amazon caused by North Atlantic warming, which has hindered the formation of rain clouds.
Some models have shown this trend to intensify as the Earth warms.
So far, the most terrible interpretation of Amazon\'s future comes from the Hudson center of the British Meteorological Bureau, whose model shows a catastrophic rise in temperatures of 8 degrees Celsius in the region (14. 4 Fahrenheit)
By the end of this century or more.
In this case, the forest is reduced to a small part of the current one.
Other studies have shown that, as in parts of Asia, the transition to longer seasonal forests during the dry season is more likely to yield results than the Bush of this century.
But Yadvinder Malhi, professor of ecosystem science at the University of Oxford, said that it could still increase Amazon\'s vulnerability in fires and have a serious impact on biodiversity.
\"Many tropical species may be reduced.
Some insects and lizards may be difficult to deal with 4-5 degrees (Celsius),” he said.
Depending on the complex interactions between temperature, atmosphere, rainfall and deforestation, it is an inaccurate science to call for when forests can pass through irreversible tipping points.
These changes are not bad news.
For example, more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can promote tree growth and drought resistance by stimulating the photosynthesis process of some species.
No one knows exactly how thousands of different tree species in Amazon will adapt to warmer temperatures and more drought.
Many of them are hardy varieties due to the deep-rooted probe 50 feet (15 meters)
Or more to find moisture to keep them alive during the drought.
The study found that in the same drought, trees in the Borneo rainforest are more likely to die than trees in the Amazon rainforest.
Brazil\'s Nobre says even in areas like Mato Grosso, forests have not reached a tipping point --
At least not in terms of climate change.
\"We have not observed any long time.
\"The long-term change in rainfall,\" he said . \".
\"In terms of climate, it\'s far from the tipping point.
\"INPE\'s study found that Amazon\'s deforestation rate must reach 40%, twice the current level, in order to trigger a widespread recession.
But in areas such as Mato Grosso, where the remaining forests are separated and affected by dry wind and fire, the process is significantly accelerated.
\"In those degraded areas, if they continue to use fire, you may reach a point where you don\'t return,\" Nobre said . \".
In a forest the size of a city block in Mato Grosso, Paul Brando\'s boots creaked in the burnt trunk, passing through fragile leaves and branches.
Every three years, the land is burned as part of an experiment to compare its resilience to an untouched forest next to it.
The result was a sad and injured landscape.
Brando, an ecologist at Amazon\'s Environmental Research Institute, calls it a \"poor\" ecosystem.
As many as half of the species have disappeared, and the carbon stored in the vegetation has fallen third in more than three years.
The grass invaded the sun.
The exposed forest floor provides fire for future fires at a temperature of 5 degrees Celsius (9 Fahrenheit)
Above the patch that still has a cool green canopy.
\"These fires can be very intense if the wet forest gets dry because you have a lot of fuel.
\"If you start to have a bit of a fire source in a dry year, you may get to this soon,\" Brando said . \".
Nearly 30% from Amazon (10 km)
A potential source of fire, such as a farm or a road.
While a scientific jury may not be conclusive on how more extreme weather will affect the forest, residents in the area are already suffering from the consequences.
For the second time in five years, the drought in the Amazon state, as large as Alaska, has brought surreal car driving places where people swim a few weeks ago.
Some food-hungry residents have salvaged endangered manatees from the shallow waters.
Officials in a small city on the solimos River near maaus say extreme conditions in recent years have led to an influx of environmental migrants.
\"This is an extreme consistency,\" said Deputy Mayor Joao Messias . \".
\"Our city is full.
After these great floods and droughts, it has filled up a lot.
\"In the smaller town of kapilanga, the ship transport here was mostly cut off due to the drought, and residents complained that the price of many foods doubled, their farmland has not recovered from the damage caused by the flood.
From the one next to his cabin-
On the lake, Manuel Ferreira de Matos squinted at the distant water through a worn-out pair of glasses, glittering A Mirage more than a kilometer away.
\"When I got home from the field, I was dying of thirst,\" said the 57-year-old. year-
Seven-year-old father
\"No problem until I can walk all day, but now I can\'t stand it --
It\'s like the sun is getting closer and closer.
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